In 2023, construction will escape a brief recession

LONDON: Analysts predict a 1.7% decline in building activity this year, followed by a return to modest growth in 2024. (Reported by news source)

Experian's construction forecasting unit has revised its most recent workload projections downward due to the severity of the broader economic challenges.

However, its experts continue to foresee a reasonably brief recession, with inflation, increased borrowing costs, and wage increases anticipated to abate in 2019, which will free up construction to resume modest 1.1% growth in 2024.

In contrast to the Construction Products Association, who warns businesses to prepare for a greater near 4% decline in workloads, they have a less bleak forecast for 2023.

According to Experian, new work will be particularly affected by the downturn this year, falling by 2.4%. Since home prices are expected to decline over the next two years.

Although much will depend on how public authorities manage rising costs, a backlog of new orders for prisons, defence, and some new hospital work should help the non-residential sector even achieve modest year-over-year growth in 2023 and 2024, of between 1.5% and 2%, before accelerating to around 3% in 2025.